Perhaps the poor record of Cox Plate favourites during the past decade influenced specking for outsiders, particularly three-year-olds, Sweynesse and Almalad.
Of course the success of Shamus Award, a three-year-old and outsider last year, has also played a role.
Sweynesse, with the strongest form coming out of the record-breaking Spring Stakes at Randwick, firmed from $38 to $21 with Betfair, and Almalad from $70 to $34.
Like Almalad, Wandjina, also trained by Gai Waterhouse, had support into $36.
Obviously Australasia's weight-for-age championship run at Moonee Valley has not been a happy hunting ground for top fancies during the past 11 years, and only two scored.
However the credentials of Fawkner, at $5 first pick in the market yesterday with betting exchange, are hard to fault.
"The genuine speed set up by The Cleaner will separate the wheat from the chaff, and leave the genuine WFA horses Fawkner, Sacred Falls and Criterion to fight the finish," Betfair's Daniel Bevan said. "I'm with Fawkner."
Still Criterion has his supporters.
"His run was as good if not better than Fawkner last start and you're getting double the price," Andrew Brown from Sportsbet opined on the Racenet poll of leading betting houses.
"He'll get the trip and James McDonald should be able to give him a good run."
While luck in running again is expected to be a factor, Nick Hall on Fawkner has the right gate – four – as well as the mount and the eye of the tiger – competitive spirit, that is – to make his own.
Fawkner has Moonee Valley experience and, him being a Caulfield Cup winner, there are no doubts about Fawkner handling the Cox Plate pressure.
Certainly the Irish hope Adelaide is the query. Generally European stayers are superior to the colonials, but he is only 3½ and has to overcome the 13 launch.
I gamble against horses I do not know, much to my chagrin in the Caulfield Cup, but that is the way I am playing with Adelaide.
Sacred Falls, Australia's best miler, has the class to win, but is he as good over the longer journey?
Verdict: Fawkner 1, Sacred Falls 2, Sweynesse 3, Criterion 4.
Precedence, nine years young and with credentials to take the Moonee Valley Cup, is a credit to the master, Bart Cummings.
Now in partnership with his grandson James, Cummings has nurtured Precedence to another possible Melbourne Cup start.
Precedence has always had a liking for Moonee Valley, emphasised by his last-start fifth to The Cleaner, beaten by 1.4 lengths over the 2040 metres on September 26.
The effort carried a "no luck" comment from Winning Post and stewards subsequently fined jockey Glen Boss $1000 for lack of vigour over the concluding stages.
Of course the veteran will meet strong opposition from Opinion, second to Junoob in the Metrop at Randwick on October 4, and Le Roi, from the Tony McEvoy stable, is ready to improve.
McEvoy told Australian Associated Press he was more than satisfied with Le Roi's two runs after a spell.
"He looked the winner and then his condition just gave out," McEvoy said regarding his last-start third in the Cranbourne Cup. "I'm really expecting him to run very well."
Verdict: Precedence.
The weight-for-age conditions of the Schweppes Crystal Mile and Moonee Valley experience favour Trust In A Gust.
No doubt Sydneysider Hooked was responsible for a strong third in the Epsom at Randwick on October 4, but rises from 52 kilograms to 58.5kg.
Trust In A Gust goes up 2kg for an emphatic success in the Toorak at Caulfield on October 11, but those behind him are badly treated today.
For instance, Akavoroun was fourth in what was regarded a "huge effort", but meets him 4.5kg worse.
From three attempts around the Moonee Valley circuit, Trust In A Gust has two wins and a second.
Verdict: Trust In A Gust, Hooked 2, Speediness 3, Akavoroun 4.
New Zealand maiden Atmosphere is strongly fancied in the Exceptional Teas Vase.
According to reports, Atmosphere galloped with proven weight-for-age performer Silent Achiever and went better than the mare.
Atmosphere has only had three starts with his last start – second over 1800m at Flemington – being a real eye-catcher.
However, Chivalry, refused a Cox Plate start, is the proven quality with two wins, one being at group two level.
Chivalry lacked the acceleration to trouble the place-getters in the group one Caulfield Guineas over 1600m, but likes the Valley and the 2040m should suit.
Verdict: Chivalry.
Play the Moonee Valley Exotics
Parlay: Race 5 – (1) Precedence; Race 6 – (5) Trust In A Gust; Race 7 – (2) Chivalry; Race 8 – (2) Fawkner.
Quadrella: Race 6 – (5) Trust In A Gust, (6) Hooked; Race 7 – (2) Chivalry, (10) Atmosphere; Race 8 – (1) Sacred Falls, (2) Fawkner; Race 9 – (1) Gypsy Diamond, (4) Suavito, (6) Ava's Delight.
Best Box Trifecta: Race 8 – (1) Sacred Falls, (2) Fawkner, (13) Sweynesse.
Best Quinella: Race 9 – (1) Gypsy Diamond, (6) Ava's Delight.
